Baccarat Odds Discussion

Jeff571966

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December 16th, 2024 at 12:17:55 PM

I recently played an online baccarat game just trying to clear a bonus. Out of roughly 1000 hands, disregarding ties, the banker won 570 and the player only 430. I was playing player of course. Needless to say the bonus was gone with these results. How uncommon would a result like this be. From my understanding the banker only has a 1.2% edge.

MDawg

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December 16th, 2024 at 12:59:01 PM

Over time Banker should win 1.2% more often than Player but I’ve experienced individual shoes skewed 3:1 or even more in the favor of one side or the other.

Lots of shoes might be at 2:1 around the middle then more or less even out by the end. Or not.

I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

unJon

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December 16th, 2024 at 1:04:49 PM

Looks like at least 570 bankers in 1,000 hands (excluding ties) is a 0.00354% event.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

SOOPOO

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December 16th, 2024 at 6:07:18 PM

unJon said:

Looks like at least 570 bankers in 1,000 hands (excluding ties) is a 0.00354% event.

To be clear, are you saying there is a .0000354 chance? Like 3.5 out of 100,000?

ThatDonGuy

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December 16th, 2024 at 6:19:44 PM

SOOPOO said:

unJon said:

Looks like at least 570 bankers in 1,000 hands (excluding ties) is a 0.00354% event.

To be clear, are you saying there is a .0000354 chance? Like 3.5 out of 100,000?

That's about what I get, too - something very close to 1 / 28,000

unJon

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December 16th, 2024 at 7:09:15 PM

Yes agree I just did a quick binomial calculation.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

MDawg

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December 16th, 2024 at 7:36:39 PM

I don't worry about odds. I make the odds.

Something like making my own luck.

I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

unJon

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December 16th, 2024 at 8:35:11 PM

MDawg said:

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

Wizard

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December 17th, 2024 at 2:38:24 AM

MDawg said:

... I’ve experienced individual shoes skewed 3:1 or even more in the favor of one side or the other.

I show the probability of either side winning 75% or more of hands, not counting ties, in any given shoe is about 1 in 47,000.

"My life is spent in one long effort to escape from the commonplace of existence. These little problems help me to do so." -- Sherlock Holmes

Sandybestdog

December 17th, 2024 at 3:10:29 AM

Am I understanding this right? If banker wins at least 570 out of 1000 resolved hands that’s a 1/28000 event? Isn’t true odds around 510? So only 60 more is that rare of an event? If that’s the case I could show you tons of pictures like this. I have my serious doubts as to the fairness of online baccarat. I play 90% on banker and probably 80% of the time I lose more hands than I win. I have tons of pictures of player getting 5 or 6 9’s in a row. Of course i was betting banker. I don’t think I have even one picture of banker getting 5 9’s in a row.

It seems from the op’s other posts that he experiences unbelievable amounts of variance playing online games and then says to himself what are the odds of that happening. I do the same thing. I’m not a math guy so I can’t really figure that stuff out. Just yesterday over the coarse of probably 1000 blackjack hands I was down 100 units. Happens all the time. In the end I just give up and say why bother? No one is going to believe you or care. Your 2 choices are simply to continue to play and accept the variance or stop playing.

unJon

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December 17th, 2024 at 4:59:51 AM

Sandybestdog said:

Am I understanding this right? If banker wins at least 570 out of 1000 resolved hands that’s a 1/28000 event? Isn’t true odds around 510? So only 60 more is that rare of an event? If that’s the case I could show you tons of pictures like this. I have my serious doubts as to the fairness of online baccarat. I play 90% on banker and probably 80% of the time I lose more hands than I win. I have tons of pictures of player getting 5 or 6 9’s in a row. Of course i was betting banker. I don’t think I have even one picture of banker getting 5 9’s in a row.

It seems from the op’s other posts that he experiences unbelievable amounts of variance playing online games and then says to himself what are the odds of that happening. I do the same thing. I’m not a math guy so I can’t really figure that stuff out. Just yesterday over the coarse of probably 1000 blackjack hands I was down 100 units. Happens all the time. In the end I just give up and say why bother? No one is going to believe you or care. Your 2 choices are simply to continue to play and accept the variance or stop playing.

True odds about 507 bankers.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

MDawg

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December 17th, 2024 at 5:10:40 AM

Wizard said:

MDawg said:

... I’ve experienced individual shoes skewed 3:1 or even more in the favor of one side or the other.

I show the probability of either side winning 75% or more of hands, not counting ties, in any given shoe is about 1 in 47,000.

I must be experiencing extraordinary events because not a week goes by when I don't experience at least a couple 12 Bank or 12 Player runs, and shoes where Bank or Player won more say 50 out of 80 by the end.

As far as the 2:1 or even 3:1 shoes, much more rare, but I didn't need to play 50K shoes to experience them.

Somebody up there must like me.

How rare is a shoe with 17 ties in it? Experienced that twice now, and on one of them, the 17 ties occurred in the last third of the shoe, right after I started playing the ties. I cleaned up about eighty grand on ties on that shoe, and wasn't even betting very hard.

I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

Hunterhill

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December 17th, 2024 at 5:15:20 AM

Amazing things happen all the time. Some people win 50 hands of blackjack in a row or see 18 yos in a row.

You just never know what will happen.

Happy days are here again

MDawg

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December 17th, 2024 at 5:16:12 AM

Hunterhill said:

Some people win 50 hands of blackjack in a row

And some people categorically misstate facts. I call you out as stating an untruth, at best, an imprecision.

And once again, you seem to lack the guts to name me outright. How do you get anywhere in life without saying what you mean?

MDawg said:

Since it very much seems to be still food for fodder I would point out the following three posts I made, for clarification.

MDawg said:

This happened some two decades ago. Could I swear it was 60 in a row? No. Which is why I say "some sixty."

But, I do know how little I was betting and how much I won. There were double downs and blackjacks along the way, but as I recall most of the hands were regular wins. You do the math on how many hands in a row I won to get some 70K betting only about eight hunny a hand. It was a lot of wins in a row.

The entire pit was in a muddle over the continuity of my wins, which is why they kept changing dealers (superstition), changing decks, even got to the point of shuffling after every single deal to me. Nothing stopped my streak. They talked about it for years to come, almost every time I went to that casino someone would mention about how I had so and so (pit boss) in a panic that night.

You know the story of the "no shoes bandit," right? cashed his social security check and took it to about a million and a half, at Blackjack, before losing it all? I have met more than one person who was present personally during that event and described it to me in detail. I am sure the no shoes bandit won a lot of hands in a row, especially initially, to get far enough ahead to start winning the seriously big big deng. What are the odds of taking $600. to a million and a half at blackjack in just a day or so? Come to think of it, what are the odds of losing a million and a half at a regular blackjack table in just a day (assuming correct play)? Streaks happen.

MDawg said:

Well, what I remember is that I kept winning and winning and then when I finally lost two hands in a row I left. Which is why I recall no losses along the way....

Plus all the commotion over my streak to the point where they would deal only one hand to me and then immediately shuffle, every single time. And that they kept talking about it for years. It was quite a night. I mean, when I got a 16 and dealer had ten up I was already tucking my cards as the 5 came my way, I already knew what was coming. It was like that. There was a small crowd around me talking about how lucky I was. I didn't even consider it all that extraordinary at the time, as it was pretty much near the beginning of