Card Counting in Baccarat
Card Counting in Baccarat
Published Time: 2020-08-19T19:26:41-07:00
Appendices
- 1: Baccarat - The Number of Combinations of Each Possible Hand
- 2: Baccarat card counting - Effects of removing a card
- 3: Probability of a Win at Various Mid-game Stages
- 4: Streaks in Baccarat
- 5: Baccarat Side Bets
- 6: Commission Free Baccarat
- 7: Baccarat Flashing Dealers
- 8: Card Counting the Panda 8 Bet
- 9: Baccarat Odds Given Known Card
Baccarat Analysis
- One Up Baccarat Side Bet
- Natural Hand Side Bets
- Dragon Dragon Baccarat Progressive
- Jackpot Baccarat
- Banker Streak
- Duo Bao Analyzed for Better Gameplay
- Contrast Bonus Baccarat
- Tie Max (formerly Lucky Max)
- Winning Total
- Spread-Bet Baccarat
- Kill the Ox/Tiger
- Cow Cow Baccarat Side bets
- 3-Card Win
- 5 Treasures Baccarat
- Even and Odd
- Perfect Pairs (Version 1)
- Perfect Pairs (Version 2)
- Lucky 6 Baccarat Side Bet
- Monkey 6
- Monkey 6 Tie
- Grand Monkey
- Side Total Side Bets in Baccarat
- 3 Giving 8 Baccarat Side Bet
- Lucky Sevens
- Lucky 99
- Lucky 8
- Quik Baccarat
- Rabbit Play Baccarat Side Bet
- Baccarat Basics
- Baccarat Insurance
- Baccarat Gold
- Deconstructing Blazing Sevens
- Egalite Bets in Baccarat
- Matching Dragon
- Baccarat Odds for 1 to 12 Decks
- Bad Beat Baccarat
- Royal 9 Baccarat Side Bet
- Baccarat Insurance at Marina Bay Sands
- Baccarat Insurance at Asia Gaming
Miscellaneous
- Baccarat Score Boards
- Card Counting in Baccarat
Last updated: Apr 09, 2025
Introduction
For decades, I've been saying that for all intents and purposes, baccarat is a game of independent trials. In other words, studying the past outcomes in the shoe doesn't help. However, while studying the pattern of Banker and Player wins won't help you, counting cards will, a little.
To avoid confusion, when writing about baccarat, I will use all lower-case when referring to the one playing the game and capitalize Player when referring to the bet.
Effect of Removal
The start of any discussion of how card counting can improve your odds in a game like blackjack or baccarat, where multiple hands are played before shuffling, is in studying the effect of removal of any given card. For example, in blackjack it is good for the player when a five is removed and bad when an ace is removed. This is because fives tend to be bad for the player and aces good. That said, the following table shows the effect of removal of all ten point values on all three major bets. These figures are the increase in player expected value given one card removed from an eight-deck shoe, multiplied by ten million.
Effect of Removal
| Card | Banker | Player | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 188 | -178 | 5129 |
| 1 | 440 | -448 | 1293 |
| 2 | 522 | -543 | -2392 |
| 3 | 649 | -672 | -2141 |
| 4 | 1157 | -1195 | -2924 |
| 5 | -827 | 841 | -2644 |
| 6 | -1132 | 1128 | -11595 |
| 7 | -827 | 817 | -10914 |
| 8 | -502 | 533 | 6543 |
| 9 | -231 | 249 | 4260 |
For more on how this table was developed, please see my baccarat appendix 2.
Looking at this from the perspective of the Player bet, a deck rich in high cards is good. That is why it is bad for the Player bet when they leave the deck. The flip side of that coin is a deck rich in low cards is good for the Banker bet. Thus, if a low card leaves the shoe, that improves the odds on the Player and if a high card leaves, it's good for the Banker.
Online Baccarat Bonuses
A lot of sites tend to overlook baccarat bonuses, but we know there is a strong and dedicated following that love the game, and we set out to form the following table for the best baccarat bonuses. This table is sorted using the bonus amount, wagering requirement, and quality of casino, among other factors.
Sign Up Bonus
Bonus Code
280JUPITER
WR:240xB
Running Count
To keep this method simple, I devised a simple plus-minus strategy for levels 1 and 2. To use it, follow these instructions.
- At the start of a new shoe, set the Running Count equal to 0.
- As cards are exposed, add the following values according to each card seen.
- 1 to 4 points = +1
- 5 to 8 points = -1
- 0 and 9 points = 0
- You will bet on the Player or Banker according to the Running Count as you play. This is explained further according to whether playing the Level 1 or Level 2 strategy (see below).
The following table shows the expected value (EV) of the Player and Banker bets by the running count for counts of -25 to +25.
Expected Values by Running count
| Running Count | Probability | Player EV | Banker EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| -25 | 0.01% | -0.83% | -1.46% |
| -24 | 0.02% | -0.81% | -1.47% |
| -23 | 0.03% | -0.76% | -1.52% |
| -22 | 0.05% | -0.83% | -1.45% |
| -21 | 0.07% | -0.85% | -1.44% |
| -20 | 0.10% | -0.89% | -1.40% |
| -19 | 0.15% | -0.87% | -1.42% |
| -18 | 0.20% | -0.88% | -1.41% |
| -17 | 0.28% | -0.91% | -1.37% |
| -16 | 0.38% | -0.92% | -1.36% |
| -15 | 0.51% | -0.94% | -1.35% |
| -14 | 0.67% | -0.95% | -1.34% |
| -13 | 0.87% | -0.98% | -1.31% |
| -12 | 1.11% | -0.98% | -1.31% |
| -11 | 1.40% | -1.01% | -1.28% |
| -10 | 1.75% | -1.01% | -1.28% |
| -9 | 2.15% | -1.03% | -1.26% |
| -8 | 2.61% | -1.05% | -1.23% |
| -7 | 3.13% | -1.07% | -1.22% |
| -6 | 3.68% | -1.09% | -1.20% |
| -5 | 4.27% | -1.12% | -1.17% |
| -4 | 4.88% | -1.14% | -1.15% |
| -3 | 5.47% | -1.17% | -1.13% |
| -2 | 6.03% | -1.19% | -1.10% |
| -1 | 6.42% | -1.21% | -1.08% |
| 0 | 7.81% | -1.24% | -1.05% |
| 1 | 6.40% | -1.26% | -1.03% |
| 2 | 5.97% | -1.29% | -1.01% |
| 3 | 5.43% | -1.32% | -0.98% |
| 4 | 4.84% | -1.33% | -0.97% |
| 5 | 4.24% | -1.36% | -0.94% |
| 6 | 3.65% | -1.38% | -0.92% |
| 7 | 3.10% | -1.39% | -0.90% |
| 8 | 2.59% | -1.41% | -0.88% |
| 9 | 2.14% | -1.42% | -0.88% |
| 10 | 1.73% | -1.44% | -0.86% |
| 11 | 1.39% | -1.45% | -0.84% |
| 12 | 1.10% | -1.47% | -0.83% |
| 13 | 0.86% | -1.49% | -0.81% |
| 14 | 0.66% | -1.50% | -0.80% |
| 15 | 0.50% | -1.51% | -0.79% |
| 16 | 0.37% | -1.53% | -0.76% |
| 17 | 0.28% | -1.53% | -0.77% |
| 18 | 0.20% | -1.55% | -0.75% |
| 19 | 0.14% | -1.59% | -0.71% |
| 20 | 0.10% | -1.57% | -0.72% |
| 21 | 0.07% | -1.55% | -0.75% |
| 22 | 0.05% | -1.59% | -0.71% |
| 23 | 0.03% | -1.65% | -0.65% |
| 24 | 0.02% | -1.55% | -0.75% |
| 25 | 0.01% | -1.76% | -0.55% |
The table above shows the best bet is on the Player for running counts of -4 or less and on the Banker otherwise.
Level 1 Strategy
The use the Level 1 strategy, simply bet on the Player if the Running Count is -4 or less. Otherwise, bet the Banker.
Given this strategy, the player will bet on the Player 28.4% of the time. The following table shows the result of these Player bets. The bottom right corner shows a house edge of 1.06%. This should be compared to the house edge of 1.24% on the Player bet when not counting.
Level 1 Player Bets
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 1 | 0.447281 | 0.447281 |
| Push | 0 | 0.094824 | 0.000000 |
| Loss | -1 | 0.457895 | -0.457895 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.010614 |
The following table shows the result of the 71.6% of the time the player will bet on the Banker. The bottom right corner shows a house edge of 0.99%. This should be compared to the house edge of 1.06% on the Banker bet when not counting.
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