Royal 20s Side Bet Forum Discussion

Published Time: 2012-12-26T16:19:20-08:00

Wizard

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December 26th, 2012 at 4:19:20 PM

I recently saw a new blackjack side bet called Royal 20's at the Gold Coast. I was in a hurry so just grabbed a rule card. What I should have asked about was:

Number of decks (I think six).
Does a soft 20 count as a win (I think so).
Penetration (this would be highly countable, so it is an important question).

All I have to go on is the rule card below.

My initial analysis of Royal 20's shows a house edge of 18.06%, assuming six decks and soft 20's win. This is a lot higher than most BJ side bets. Maybe they had to have a big cushion to protect themselves from card counters, as Lucky Ladies did.

Can anyone confirm or deny my math, or answer the three questions above?

Thanks.

"My life is spent in one long effort to escape from the commonplace of existence. These little problems help me to do so." -- Sherlock Holmes

teliot

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December 26th, 2012 at 4:27:18 PM

Surprise!

This bet was burnt out in 2003 when it was at the Plaza and a few other casinos. It is more vulnerable than Lucky Ladies and has much lower variance. Yes, A-9 counts as 20. It doesn't take much to beat it. A friend camped out at the Plaza and played it for weeks. He bet $50 on Royal 20's (that was the table max) whenever the count indicated.

Here is the original article on the game, from 2003:

I actually still have the simulator I wrote way back then. I checked the code, same game.

Any Ten-based count will work (e.g. 2-9 = +1, T,J,Q,K = -2, A = 0).

Simulating that count with 6 decks dealt to 260 cards (5 of 6), 100M hands:

Wager frequency: 7.67%
Average edge: 8.66%
Units won per 100 hands: 0.664
Trigger true count: +6

Simulating that count with 2 decks dealt to 75 cards:

Wager frequency: 6.54%
Average edge: 10.58%
Units won per 100 hands: 0.692
Trigger true count: +8

The numbers above are based on very old software. I'll re-do it in the next few days. My recommendation is that the side bet be carefully watched by any casino hosting it. Of course, APs have a good thing going until then.

GH

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December 27th, 2012 at 5:47:45 AM

This side bet contains TWO spots? One for betting YOU get a 20, and the other for betting the DEALER will get a 20. I regularly see people trying to play BOTH spots at the same time.

Also, the (one and only Royal 20's) table Mike refers to in his analysis (at the Gold Coast) had a CSM. They have since replaced it with a DD pitch. The CSM now replaces the only shoe game they used to have (near the cashier).

December 27th, 2012 at 6:06:09 AM

Inventer of the game BOBBY FLORENCE .

Question: Did you have an expert figure out the expected house edge for the side bets, so that you could sell casinos on the game's profitability?

Answer: Yes, we hired Michael Shackleford, the "Wizard of Odds."

GH

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December 27th, 2012 at 6:09:10 AM

Quote: MrCasinoGames
Inventer of the game BOBBY FLORENCE .
Question: Did you have an expert figure out the expected house edge for the side bets, so that you could sell casinos on the game's profitability?
Answer: Yes, we hired Michael Shackleford, the "Wizard of Odds."

Hmmmm...

DJTeddyBear

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December 27th, 2012 at 6:18:07 AM

Hmmm... From that Review Journal article:

Quote: Review Journal
Question: Did you have an expert figure out the expected house edge for the side bets, so that you could sell casinos on the game's profitability?
Answer: Yes, we hired Michael Shackleford, the "Wizard of Odds."

DJTeddyBear

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December 27th, 2012 at 6:18:46 AM

Wow.

Three of us keyed in on that same snippet!

LOL!

Wizard

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December 27th, 2012 at 6:41:06 AM

Quote: MrCasinoGames
Answer: Yes, we hired Michael Shackleford, the "Wizard of Odds."

I'm sure I warned him to put it on a CSM.

"My life is spent in one long effort to escape from the commonplace of existence. These little problems help me to do so." -- Sherlock Holmes

boymimbo

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December 27th, 2012 at 6:55:23 AM

I'm laughing because the Wizard can't remember the work he did 10 years ago!

You should probably check your archives to make sure you actually did that work to make sure that the inventor wasn't pulling a name out of a hat!!!

DJTeddyBear

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December 27th, 2012 at 7:02:57 AM

Quote: Wizard
I'm sure I warned him to put it on a CSM.

Either he ignored and/or forgot your adivce, or BoyMimbo's right.

Quote: Review Journal
Question: It seems like this game would be susceptible to card counting.
Answer: As far as counting goes, the casino executives say that people who count cards don't waste their money on side bets.

Quote: boymimbo
You should probably check your archives to make sure you actually did that work to make sure that the inventor wasn't pulling a name out of a hat!!!

Wizard

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December 27th, 2012 at 7:29:37 AM

I admit I did the original math, but I forgot the details of the rules. I've analyzed hundreds of games for game inventors and don't remember all of them.

"My life is spent in one long effort to escape from the commonplace of existence. These little problems help me to do so." -- Sherlock Holmes

Buzzard

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December 27th, 2012 at 7:44:52 AM

Quote: MrCasinoGames
Inventer of the game BOBBY FLORENCE .
Question: Did you have an expert figure out the expected house edge for the side bets, so that you could sell casinos on the game's profitability?
Answer: Yes, we hired Michael Shackleford, the "Wizard of Odds."

Guess I was not fully awake. I read this as Mr. Casino Games, Inventor of the game Bobby Florence. Used to reading, Mr.Casino Games, inventor of 100+ casino games. Actually was googling to find Bobby Florence game. Talk about DUMB !

Bobby Florence is the creator of a new casino game called Royal 20’s which is a variant of the game of blackjack. Florence is a casino employee as well as a former UNLV Hall of Fame Basketball player and is hoping to be remembered for the creation of the new blackjack game.

GH

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December 27th, 2012 at 8:19:06 AM

Quote: Wizard
I'm sure I warned him to put it on a CSM.

For whatever reason Gold Coast decided, after a few weeks, to make it a DD, and use the CSM to replace their shoe game.

miplet

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December 27th, 2012 at 10:10:37 AM

Quote: Wizard
Can anyone confirm or deny my math, or answer the three questions above?

Math part is right. google doc

Buzzard

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December 27th, 2012 at 10:24:46 AM

I sure can't. But I did finally break down and order direct TV. Installer just left and I walked into bedroom, AMC was on, and the movie just starting. CASINO Sometimes life is nice.

Ardent1

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December 27th, 2012 at 1:20:21 PM

Quote: teliot
Surprise!
This bet was burnt out in 2003 when it was at the Plaza and a few other casinos. It is more vulnerable than Lucky Ladies and has much lower variance. Yes, A-9 counts as 20. It doesn't take much to beat it. A friend camped out at the Plaza and played it for weeks. He bet $50 on Royal 20's (that was the table max) whenever the count indicated.
....
Simulating that count with 2 decks dealt to 75 cards:
Wager frequency: 6.54%
Average edge: 10.58%
Units won per 100 hands: 0.692
Trigger true count: +8
The numbers above are based on very old software. I'll re-do it in the next few days. My recommendation is that the side bet be carefully watched by any casino hosting it. Of course, APs have a good thing going until then.

+8 TC aren't that common, that is assuming you are Hi-Lo

teliot

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December 27th, 2012 at 1:52:57 PM

Quote: Ardent1
+8 TC aren't that common, that is assuming you are Hi-Lo

The true count +8 is for the tens-count indicated in the post. This true count or higher will happen on 6.54% of the hands.