College Football Rivalry Week Preview: Ohio State-Michigan, Texas A&M-Texas and More

Published Time: 2025-11-27T12:00:00Z

Bill Connelly Nov 27, 2025, 08:00 PM

Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.

It seems like only yesterday that Florida State was running circles around Alabama, LSU was scoring a statement win over Clemson, Miami was defeating Notre Dame in a game with potential playoff stakes, and James Franklin and Brian Kelly were coaching top-10 teams.

College football has the shortest regular season around but remains capable of endless plot twists. A mere 13 weeks from Week 1, Florida State and Penn State are 5-6, Clemson is 6-5, Kelly is out of a job, Franklin has found a new one and, because of another couple of late-game failures, Miami is again just on the outside of the College Football Playoff looking in (while Notre Dame is again safe).

Now we get to find out how the story ends. Who will survive the intricate web of tiebreakers to reach conference title games? What surprises might fierce rivalry games provide? And most importantly, how much small-school playoff football do you plan on watching?

It's time to feast on Thanksgiving and on football. It's Rivalry Week! Here's everything you need to follow.

Two huge rivalry games starring favorites as spoilers

Rivalry Week's superpower is its depth. Everywhere you look -- from the Egg Bowl to the Territorial Cup to the Battle on the Bayou (Louisiana-ULM) to the Battle for the Fremont Cannon (Nevada-UNLV) -- you'll find games that will define fans' outlooks for an entire offseason.

It's nice to have some bell-cow games, though. And two of the sport's loudest rivalries have major stakes this year.

No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan (Saturday, noon, Fox)

I don't know if you've heard, but Ohio State hasn't beaten Michigan in a while. Since the start of 2021, the Buckeyes are 0-4 in The Game and 58-4 in all others. They went through a full-on existential crisis after last year's loss, then rallied to whomp four straight opponents and win the national title.

On Saturday, the Buckeyes will try out a new role for a new era: unbeaten spoiler. They're safely in the CFP no matter what, though they could still lose their spot in the Big Ten championship game. (I guess that would be a bad thing?) But with a win, they could ensure that Michigan is out of the CFP running. That's probably enough motivation.

Last week, Michigan provided a complete performance with a 45-20 win over Maryland. Reserve running backs Bryson Kuzdzal and Tomas O'Meara, in because of injuries, rushed for a combined 171 yards, and the defense allowed touchdowns on only the Terps' first and last drives. Bryce Underwood ranks 12th in QBR in November, and the Wolverines are 10th in defensive SP+.

Ohio State has been so ruthlessly automatic that we still don't know everything we need to know about quarterback Julian Sayin. Even with star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate battling injuries of late, Sayin has completed 79% of his passes with 27 TDs to four interceptions, but he has also thrown just 25 fourth-quarter passes. How will he perform when facing constant pressure? We don't know. (Of course, Penn State got in his face a lot and he went 20-for-23.) Can he lead a late, do-or-die drive? We don't know. (Granted, he's 15-for-18 for 223 yards when trailing.)

Smith appears likely to play Saturday, but Tate's status remains uncertain. This might be the stiffest defensive test Sayin has faced, but it's definitely the stiffest Underwood has faced, and he doesn't have the healthiest skill corps either. The pressure is all on Michigan for a change.

Current line: Buckeyes -11.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 14.6 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 8.5

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 16 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)

For 15 years, Texas A&M (which beat Texas 24-17 in 2010) has been able to say it won its last trip to Austin. If the Aggies can still say that Saturday morning, they'll have wrapped up their second perfect regular season since 1939, clinched their first SEC championship game appearance and officially knocked Texas out of CFP contention.

Texas just hasn't looked the part for much of 2025. Projected fifth in SP+, the Longhorns are currently 23rd with a defense that has allowed more than 30 points for four straight games and an offense that only recently began carrying its weight. Of course, Arch Manning ranks ninth in QBR in November, and while he has derived loads of success from short, easy passes, the offense is indeed clicking even if the defense isn't.

Two weeks ago against South Carolina, A&M's Marcel Reed put together just about the worst first half (6-for-19 with two interceptions and two sacks) and best second half (16-for-20 for 298 yards and three TDs) of his life. You can't ever say A&M is out of a game if Reed is around to dig the Aggies out of a hole, but he also might be part of the reason they're in the hole to begin with.

Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.3 | FPI projection: Texas by 0.3

Which contender falls on the road?

Of the 11 teams ranked from fourth to 14th in the CFP rankings, nine play on the road this weekend. A few could survive a loss with a CFP bid intact, but with so many similar teams packed together, you don't really want to find out if you're on the "could survive" list.

Based on SP+ win probabilities, there's only about a 7% chance that these nine teams all win and there is a 37% chance that at least three lose. Chaos looms. Let's talk about each of the nine games, going from the most likely to the least likely defeats for the contenders.

No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 19 Tennessee (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)

Tennessee and Vanderbilt have had basically the same season: They're a combined 0-4 against teams in the SP+ top 12 (UT 0-3, VU 0-1) and 17-1 against everyone else (UT 8-0, VU 9-1). They have the same general strengths (ruthlessly efficient offenses) and weaknesses (defenses that show up only occasionally). Vols fans are probably annoyed that their team is out of the playoff running because their schedule was slightly harder, but they can exact some level of vengeance with a win Saturday.

My Heisman points race totals suggest Diego Pavia's odds should be better than they are. He'll have to torch Tennessee's (occasionally torchable) defense to make a good final impression. But Joey Aguilar is capable of doing the same. Both are in the best quadrant of this chart:

Both defenses played well last week against limited opponents, but the offenses have the advantage here.

Current line: Vols -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 0.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 2.0

No. 12 Miami at No. 22 Pitt (Saturday, noon, ABC)

Since walloping a good USF team in Week 3, Miami has played three SP+ top-40 teams -- Florida State, Louisville and SMU -- and lost to two. The defense has been consistently strong; the Canes are seventh in points allowed per drive, and they could give Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel hell if the Panthers' run game isn't sharp enough. But the Miami offense has been dragged down at times by a lack of explosiveness and forced to score via long drives with lots of snaps.

That makes Pitt a fascinating matchup: The Panthers come at you, risking explosive plays in exchange for three-and-outs. Miami receivers Malachi Toney, Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels have had their game-breaking moments, but they're averaging just 12.2 yards per catch altogether. If they don't find and exploit open spaces, an upset looms.

Current line: Miami -6.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 6.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 5.2

No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)

In the past three seasons, Auburn has played 14 ranked opponents; the Tigers have gone 1-13 but with nine one-score defeats. When you come so consistently close, you're always a threat.

Auburn's defense is elite against the run, but Alabama has all but given up on the ground game. The Tide choose instead to put everything on quarterback Ty Simpson's shoulders, and despite a solid pass rush Auburn ranks 93rd in yards allowed per dropback. That's a problem, but the Tigers could make things confusing on offense. Both Ashton Daniels (against Vandy) and Deuce Knight (against Mercer) have enjoyed fantastic performances since Hugh Freeze's firing, and there isn't a ton of tape on either of them. If Auburn keeps this one uncomfortably close -- or pulls off a terribly damaging upset -- the element of surprise could be a major reason.

Current line: Bama -5.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 6.0 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.5

No. 6 Oregon at Washington (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)

Oregon might not need a win in Seattle to secure a playoff bid, but if other favorites win and it doesn't, things could get tense.

Washington's run defense is stout enough to push the Ducks off schedule and force quarterback Dante Moore to hit big third-and-long throws that he hasn't always made this season. But this game will likely come down to quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and the Washington offense. They've dominated all but the most elite defenses.

Washington vs. two top-10 defenses (per SP+): 6.5 points per game, 4.5 yards per play

Washington vs. everyone else: 42.0 points per game, 7.0 yards per play

Unfortunately for the Huskies, Oregon ranks fifth in defensive SP+. If Williams gets going, Washington can beat anyone. But it would be the first time he has done so against a defense this good.

Current line: Ducks -6.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.7 | FPI projection: Ducks by 7.1

No. 4 Georgia at No. 23 Georgia Tech (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)

November has been a nightmare for Georgia Tech. After an 8-0 start, the Yellow Jackets have lost two of three, their defense giving up 41.3 points per game. Last week's loss to Pitt removed a lot of stakes from this game. Luckily, coach Brent Key, a former Tech lineman, has enough hatred for Georgia to keep the stakes as high as possible.

If you can't stop Georgia's run game, the Dawgs will just keep at it, and that might be all that matters in this one. But Tech's offense remains excellent. Haynes King has thrown for at least 300