Why did a nation that did an excellent job in the battle against the "Covid-19" catching the whole world in surprise, a strategically tactical society and courageous nation that had won many more fierce and fiercer wars than Covid-19, haven’t been able to win in the economic front, could not rise to the top in the period of peace and reconstruction.

This concern is the reason why Mr. Le Viet Hai, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Hoa Binh Group, the largest construction corporation in Vietnam, devoted his time, effort, research, writing and published the "The Golden Decade, history’s new page " which analyzing the opportunity for Vietnam to break out of the middle income trap, reaching prosperity into a great power in the coming decades. Thanh Nien had an interview with Mr. Le Viet Hai about this book.

Going into the Global Market of 7 billion people -01-

Most entrepreneurs are busy, the time for them is more valuable than gold. The leader of the largest construction corporation in the country, managing hundreds of large projects and facing fierce competition of many domestic and foreign contractors, which made him spend nearly half a year, and "spending his energy" in writing books?

- Mr. Le Viet Hai: The golden population structure (the number of people of working age is more than twice the number of dependents) is an extremely important condition for a weak country to break through and become a great power. The golden population structure usually lasts about 30 years and many countries around the world take full advantage of this opportunity to create miracles in economic development and to develop the country.

It is forecasted that Vietnam's golden population structure will last until 2034. Have you ever questioned what will happen when Vietnam's population becomes old, one person will have to bear children and raise their fathers? Mom and the whole family? In fact, fertility in Vietnam has rapidly decreased, from 2006 to now maintaining fertility from 1-2 children. I feel this very clearly in my own family. My parents have 11 children, my wife's family has 12 children. Our generation has a plentiful human resource, over 10 children to take care of their parents. But now my family and siblings only have 2 children. Successive generations will no longer be the same. Not only carrying their families, they also have to carry debts. Vietnam's public debt is still very large. In 2019, public debt is 3.48 million billion dong, equivalent to 56.1% of GDP. If these public debts are not handle effectively, the next generation after this decade will have to pay the burden of debt repayment in addition to the burden of nurturing dependents. That means more and more difficulties, so what to get the financial accumulation to develop and break through? Economic researchers have a very accurate judgment, that if developing countries do not make a breakthrough in the period of golden population, it will be difficult to overcome the middle income trap and will never become a great power.

We have passed the first 10 years of the golden population structure period (2009-2019). The third decade (2030-2040) is likely that the less affluent people are as old as some countries that have consequences such as the above. Therefore the second decade (2020-2030) is now the optimal decade, an extremely important opportunity for the country's economic development. That's why I "spending my time", saying it your way.

The Prime Minister has just issued Decision 558 on the "Program of adjusting fertility to regions and people by 2030" with the expectation that young men and women will get married before the age of 30 and have many policies to support their families. enough two children in cities with low birth rates. As far as I understand, this policy aims to extend the period of Vietnam's golden population to give the country more room to implement economic development strategies? How do you evaluate this policy and does that change the time of the "golden decade" you just said?

I think that is a very correct and timely decision. The costly lesson for Japan and South Korea is that after turning into dragons, the fertility rate was so low that it was necessary to import labor from abroad to maintain the economy. Therefore, the vision of extending the golden population structure is a sustainable development strategy of the Government. Vietnam needs to sustainably maintain the national fertility rate, increase fertility in cities with low fertility, and reduce fertility in provinces with high fertility, in order to successfully implement Vietnam's population strategy, contribute to national economic development.

But whether this policy of birth promotion succeeds or not, in my opinion, the golden population structure in the period of 2020-2030 is still the best and extremely valuable population structure because the time runs out.

In a recent article, Professor Tran Van Tho said that Vietnam was facing a third opportunity from its success in combating the Covid-19 pandemic ... after having missed two opportunities since 1975. to date. Does the "gold" you mentioned in the next decade (2020-2030) also originate from this reason? Could you analyze more clearly Vietnam's advantages in the "golden decade", opportunities for us to write a "new history" for the country's economy?

Vietnam’s image through the battle against the pandemic is an achievement because it made every nations around the world shocked and admired. Therefore, this is a good opportunity for Vietnam to establish its well-deserved position in the globe, to write a new history page in this golden decade

As Professor Tran Van Tho analyzed, thanks to the success in fighting against the pandemic, the image of Vietnam is a safe country for quality of life and low risk in investment makes Vietnam an ideal destination for cascades. New FDI from Japan and European and American countries ... Need to say more after the Covid-19 pandemic, Vietnam is not only an ideal destination for FDI flows but also an ideal destination for international tourists. I think that after the Covid-19 pandemic, the world's economic order certainly changed. The image of Vietnam through the anti-epidemic miracle has been admired and admired by the world and this is a good opportunity for Vietnam to establish a more worthy position, writing on a new history page in the golden decade.

Broadly speaking, Japan and South Korea are the two countries with rapid development, just over three decades they have taken the country to new heights by industrializing key economic sectors. China is a country with rapid economic development over three decades with a four modernization strategy. With the advantage of the latecomer, Vietnam needs to learn from these lessons to develop balanced, harmonious and in harmony with nature; environmental protection, human happiness and economic development. In my opinion, Vietnam needs to choose the path of sustainable development, ensuring the harmonization of personal, family, national, ethnic and all human rights in the world.

With the advantage of a second coming, Vietnam needs to learn some valuable lessons about balancing development, pro- nature; environmental safety, society happiness together with the strong economic development. To me, I think Vietnam needs to choose a sustainable road, ensuring the balance between harmonization of personal, family, national, ethnic, and all human rights in the world.

I know that you have ambition to export construction to the world many years ago. Hoa Binh is also a pioneer corporation in Malaysia, Myanmar and Kuwait markets. But in fact, Vietnam's construction market is at the "hottest" stage with a growth rate of about 9-9.2% in 2019, accounting for nearly 6% of the country's GDP structure. Many large foreign contractors also see Vietnam as a potential destination. Instead of pondering how to "export", just exploit the domestic market is also "delicious" sir?

That is only the present and the near future, even a very near future. In fact, people who reach the annual working age in Vietnam are very large, creating jobs is a difficult problem for the country. On the other hand, in the far future, when we have sufficient infrastructure and civil and industrial projects, meeting well economic development, the demand for construction will not be much. At that time, the redundant human resources will face difficulties and will have to do non-professional jobs and cause waste. Development of the offshore construction industry not only solves the problem of jobs but also ensures high income for the workforce in the present and future. Currently, the growth rate of the market is slower than the growth rate of enterprises. The domestic construction market is too cramped and saturated compared to the construction capacity of companies. Long-term supply and demand asymmetry will affect the entire industry.

Meanwhile, the global construction industry can be said to be "huge" and full of potential for us to exploit. The total output of the world's construction industry in 2018 was 11,400 billion USD, equivalent to 750 times the total output of Vietnam's construction industry in 2019. The forecast for 2022 is 12,900 billion USD. Vietnam's construction industry is providing services to nearly 100 million people in the domestic market, when developing to the international market, we will have the opportunity to serve more than 7 billion people. Our customer base has increased by more than 70 times, but the value earned will not only stop at 70 times but will increase very high, because the total output of the global construction industry as I just said, is larger and vaster than Vietnam.

In 2019, The dependent population of Australia is 52%, 53% for the United States, 68% for Japan. In 2017, the dependent population for France is 60%. Finland is 60%, England is 56%, German is 52%. Currently, the dependent statistic of Vietnam in this golden population is abundant. The population structure will end when the dependent population reaches and cross 50%. In the report “overall survey about population and housing in 2009”, the overall statistic show the definition from the UN about the golden decade, children from (0-14) below 30% and senior citizen (65 and above) below 15% in the total population. In 2009, Vietnam started to enter the golden decade. In 2019, the statistic of children took up 23% and senior citizen is 7,7%. Entering the most optimized golden population.

Changing the income for labor force -02-

"It's never a failure! It's all a challenge," the title of the autobiography is also considered to be the immortal maxim of Chung Ju Yung about what he's been through all his life to get a Hyundai. This day shows that the construction industry has played a pioneering role in the Korean economic construction. The scarce natural resources and minerals have experienced many chaotic wars, but Korea has grown rapidly to become a leading economic power in the world, including a significant part of the efforts of the Hyundai Group. In his book "The Golden Decade, History’s New Page", he also affirmed that this sector played an important role in helping Vietnam overcome the middle income trap and become a great power. But taking the success of Hyundai nearly 40 years ago to choose the construction industry in the current context is still appropriate or not?

I assert that only developing high-speed construction market can change the income of businesses and workers. Because besides the direct supply chain such as the production of construction materials, the production of construction equipment, consulting services, design and BIM services, the construction industry is closely related to other economic sectors. such as banking, finance, transportation, insurance ... So this industry will develop along with many other industries to develop, creating strong growth for the national economy. I emphasize that only high-speed development and right in the golden opportunity to overcome the middle income trap. We must be very drastic and bold, because this is a golden opportunity, the best way to contribute to national development. Each individual will bring the income of Vietnam's construction industry on par with international income. From workers, supervisors to architects, engineers will have commensurate salaries. The contribution of each citizen, each business will help the country overcome the middle income trap.

“I want to emphasize that, only a high speed development and right on this golden age; it is the one chance we can overcome the middle age income trap. We need to pour our energy and be more aggressive. Because all of this is our golden opportunity, the best way to help our nation grow” -

In theory, it is might be right, but the fact is that our construction industry in terms of finance, experience, technology, brand ... is difficult to compete with multinational corporations on the global playing field. Of course that's just my personal feeling, being an expert, how do you assess Vietnam's construction capacity? Will we have the chance to succeed when we go to the big ocean?

As you say, finance, technology, brand ... we can not compare with the "big boys" in the world. However, that doesn't mean we can't compete with them. From the harsh circumstances of war and sanctions, Vietnam has a valuable opportunity that no other country in the world has ever experienced. Thanks to the Doi Moi process, booming construction demand, thousands of international investors, suppliers, design consultants, project management consultants came to Vietnam. International aid sources for Vietnam have been resumed and international trade has been expanding. Thanks to the Doi Moi age, hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese private companies were established and flourished in many fields. Vietnam's construction industry has contributed to completely changing the development face of Vietnam. Civil housing constructions, industrial factories or infrastructure systems are constantly developing. In parallel with the inflow of foreign investment, the spirit of learning and the ability to grasp modern technology and technology of Vietnamese people is increasing. The Vietnamese construction companies have strongly developed, gradually conquering international investors to execute large-scale projects, high technical requirements and gradually replace foreign contractors, significantly reduce construction costs, increase the overall competitiveness of the economy. Vietnamese construction companies have been mastering new technology in construction through thousands of works of high quality, fast speed and safety. A few companies have successfully built a management system based on 4.0 technology, initially applying artificial intelligence (AI) to project management. From mastering the domestic construction market to reaching the global market is an inevitable step of the development advocacy rule.

Specifically, the capacity of domestic enterprises when many big and key projects have the shadow of foreign contractors. Most local contractors, still only subcontracting right at home?

Among the top ten contractors globally, international sales have grown faster than domestic sales. This proves that the development strategy to the international market is the main direction of multinational corporation. I mean, it's normal for them to be present in Vietnam and as a general contractor in many projects. Just like us, when we have mastered the domestic construction market, it is time to reach the global market. That is the indispensable rule of integration but we can completely compete.

Do you admit with me, it is hard to imagine a Vingroup leading car project in the world in Hai Phong in just 21 months, a global record of construction speed and development. Automobile production declaration. Or Hoa Phat Steel Plant in Dung Quat with the scale of millions tons/year completed in 18 months; Deo Ca Tunnel was constructed by Vietnamese contractors at half the cost of foreign contractors; Bai Chay cable-stayed bridge-like, cable-stayed with post-tensioned, and cable-stayed bridge like, also designed and constructed by Vietnamese contractors ... In the past, we have had companies that make hydroelectric works. caliber Hoa Binh, Lai Chau and Son La hydroelectric plants. In particular, Son La Hydroelectric Plant with the largest capacity of the area of 2,400 MW was designed and constructed by Vietnam (General contractor EPC).

We also have reputable export construction products and services companies. Brick and tile industry is the fourth position in the top 10 producing countries, the cement industry is the third, the export of wooden products is the fifth, the steel and steel industry is the 17th ... It can be said that the supply chain in the construction industry of Vietnam are ready and can fully be competitive in the world.

It is true that our capabilities in the construction industry have come a long way compared to before. But to compete in the global playground, what advantages do we have over the major contractor brands in the world?

When I travel abroad, even in the United States, Canada, Australia or Europe, it is difficult to find a company capable of constructing hundreds of high-rise buildings in a year. But now Hoa Binh Construction Group has been doing so. Moreover, the cost of building high-rise buildings for the middle class of our country is very competitive, ranging from 400 to 600 USD/m2, while developed countries range from 1,800 - 3,000 USD/m2. In particular, there are very poor countries but the construction cost is still very high because they are not capable to build a team and own modern construction technology, so they have to use foreign general contractor services. In developed countries, the price of building a square meter up to thousands of dollars, we can bring billions of dollars to the country. Korea, Japan, China, Turkey have done that. Why can't Vietnam do it?

Not to mention in some industries that Vietnam has an advantage in the global market, construction is not only the most promising with very high competitiveness but also the industry with the largest global market. Construction of Vietnam is also the industry with the largest localization rate, making the most of the supply chain of domestic industrial products... Therefore, if successful in expanding the market to the global market, the industry construction will bring a huge foreign currency benefit, increasing total national income. I emphasize that the strategy of developing Vietnam's construction industry to reach the global market is entirely feasible, bringing tremendous economic benefits and worthy contributions to help Vietnam overcome the middle income trap. In the coming decades, if Vietnam has the right strategy, determination, solidarity, and cooperation for all resources.

Every international organizations in the world rank other nations based on the average income per capita. According to it, every nations will be in four groups: low income nations with average income per capita from 1,025 USD/year and below. Nations with average to low income per capita is 1,026 USD/year to 4,035 USD/year; Nations with high average income from 4,036 USD/year to 12,475 USD/year, and high average income nations is 12,476 USD/year and above. By that ranking. Vietnam belong to a average to low income nation. In 2018, Vietnam recorded average GNI is 2,360 USD per capita. This showed us that if we want to overcome the average income trap. Our country needs to switch from horizontal development to dive deeper, complete the economic front, actively joining the international, protect the environment, ensuring fairness and social development.

We wil be the pioner - 03 -

To be honest, I was completely convinced with what he said about the capabilities and advantages of Vietnam's construction industry. But the "big sea", those factors are enough or not? What about the financial, technological potential, the Government's support in the policy mechanism, in the negotiation of trade agreements, even in the negotiation of national-level projects ...?

Exactly, the majority of construction companies have small equity, financial capacity is not strong enough with many limitations. Large enterprises are often appropriated capital from investors, so the ability to accumulate capital is low. Our human resources are abundant in quantity but the quality has not kept up with the requirements of the world (foreign languages, qualifications and skills according to international standards). Vietnamese contractors do not have much experience in international construction ... In particular, there is a lack of synergy and determination for strategic goals at the national level.

But we can fix it. Billionaire Warren Buffett wrote, "If you want to go fast, go alone, if you want to go further, go together". I really like this saying, especially in the strategy of going out into the world of construction industry. When going to foreign markets, it is necessary to gather construction companies, design consulting and project management companies, manufacturers of construction materials, equipment and exterior of Vietnam. However, the most important thing is that we must develop at a high speed to quickly take advantage of the golden population structure. Time is gold, in the golden decade, time is even more precious.

Just as you say, to succeed, there must be support from the Government. When signing international trade agreements, the Government should attach importance to the provision that allowing Vietnamese construction enterprises to practice equitably like other contractors in the host countries; recognize professional qualifications and certificates granted by Vietnamese formal education and training organizations; Vietnamese construction enterprises are exempted or reduced import tax for labor, materials, construction equipment, avoid double taxation when operating in the host country... Of course besides that are remedial measures. the weaknesses that I have just mentioned.

In the book "The Golden Decade, History’s new page", you placed on the role of Hoa Binh Construction Corporation the mission of fulfilling the strategic goal of bringing Vietnam's construction industry to the world stage "with a passionate patriotism. tireless creative labor efforts, with passion, a burning love for the profession and determination to create high values not only for Hoa Binh Construction Group but also for Vietnam and for humanity around the world". I think simple, every individual, every business that lives well, doing well its mission has contributed greatly to the country already. Is it necessary to attach to noble missions while the most important goal of a business is to maximize profits?

You have the right to ask questions, even doubts, but every Monday morning in all parts of the country, members of the Hoa Binh Group sing out the lyrics: “we are excited to walk forward, with our hearts loving our lives and a great dream. Peace comes to all places and we dream of a home for everyone. I travel the world with a passionate heart and love of life and with wonderful dreams. A Vietnam will be forever beautiful, a world where there are many people happy and we dream of an ever-green Earth... " This is not the time we have raised that problem. However, this is the moment, opportunities. Over the past three decades of forming and development, in the new history of Hoa Binh Construction Group at the beginning of Vietnam's golden decade and turning around the history of humanity after the pandemic. Covid-19. I think that the problem of humanity after the historical event of the Covid-19 pandemic is no longer unique to each of us, each of us is partly responsible as a global citizen.

Specifically, what will the Group do and contribute to this strategy?

We will be the pioneer in exporting construction services to global markets in the fields of civil, industrial and infrastructure. Further through economic development, the Group strives to become an "ambassador" for the Vietnamese civilization of kindness and altruism, making the Hoa Binh national brand a beautiful symbol of Vietnam. As a pioneer in exporting integrated construction services to the world, Hoa Binh hopes to bring other contractors and other service supply chains to foreign countries. One thing is certain, when developing abroad, the Group will contribute greatly to the national economy. For example, if the Group invested in constructing US $ 30 billion a year, the value of domestic production would be only US $ 30 billion. In Vietnam, according to calculations, 30 billion USD built 10 million m2 and maximum only 15-20 million m2. If export of construction services to general contractors and products is made abroad, the revenue to the national budget will be very large.

Hoa Binh Group in the age “Doi Moi” for its own society. From a small office in Ho Chi Minh city. After 32 years, Hoa Binh became a general construction contractor with the network spread nationwide, and we kept pushing every steps to be globally. We identified this golden decade is the only opportunity to conquer new peak and creating value. Creating a new history’s page for Hoa Binh. From being a leader in the world to the top leader globally, contribute our best to Vietnam to overcome the middle income trap and become one of the best nation.

Nguyen Hang

Thanh Nien

The link to the original post is HERE

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